This week, former President Donald Trump continued to face mounting legal challenges. The Manhattan District Attorney’s office is wrapping up its investigation into Trump’s alleged role in hush-money payments made to Stormy Daniels, with a potential indictment on the horizon. Meanwhile, an increasingly divided Republican electorate is expressing a growing sense of pessimism about the future, with only 30% believing that the country’s best days are ahead of it. And finally, in an unprecedented public break with Trump, former Vice President Pence has rebuked the former President for his role in the Jan. 6 insurrection, saying that “history will hold him accountable” for the attack on the Capitol.
Here’s what you need to know for the weekend:
Main Points for the Weekend:
1. Former President Donald Trump faces a potential indictment by the Manhattan district attorney’s office, after rejecting a grand jury hearing invitation into his alleged involvement in a hush money scheme to adult-film actress Stormy Daniels.
The investigation into former President Donald Trump’s alleged involvement in hush-money payments made to Stormy Daniels is winding down, with Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg potentially seeking criminal charges against the former president who is running for office again. Trump’s attorney has confirmed that he will not testify in a New York grand jury investigation into the matter. Legal experts are uncertain what a criminal case against Trump would look like, as the district attorney examines whether he broke campaign finance laws by using legal fees to reimburse Michael Cohen, who paid Daniels $130,000 to keep quiet about their alleged affair. Daniels and her lawyer have met with prosecutors investigating the case, according to recent reports.
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- Top point to make: If Trump is found to have broken the law, it would demonstrate that no one, not even the President, is above the law and that democracy in the United States is protected by a system of checks and balances. To maintain trust in the democratic process and ensure that future elections are free and fair, Trump must be held accountable for any criminal or unethical behavior in which he engaged.
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- If you read one thing: Washington Post, 3/14/23: What we know about the Donald Trump-Stormy Daniels payment case. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s investigation into former president Donald Trump’s role in hush-money payments made to Stormy Daniels, an adult-film actress, appears to be winding down. The case involves a $130,000 payment made during the frenetic 2016 presidential campaign, a former Trump lawyer and fixer who served time in prison and a prosecutor who could seek criminal charges against a former president now running for office once again. Legal analysts say a criminal case could face potential hurdles, describing it as unusual for a local prosecutor to prosecute a presidential candidate for violating state campaign finance law, among other things. A criminal case against Trump in the matter could also face another issue: relying at least somewhat on testimony from Cohen, who has pleaded guilty to, among other things, lying to Congress.
2. The MAGA movement is dwindling to an aging core of voters who are sinking into pessimism, frustration, and malaise.
The appeal of the GOP’s “Make America Great Again” movement reportedly is waning, as recent surveys show it largely comprises a small group of pessimistic and frustrated older Americans. Only 30% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents believe in the country’s future, and the party has become increasingly older, with one-third aged 65 or older. Furthermore, a majority of GOP voters over 65 see diversity as a “threat,” and 63% of all Republicans believe in the “Big Lie” that the 2020 election was stolen by Joe Biden. This pessimism is particularly striking given that during the Trump administration, 77% of Republicans were optimistic about the country’s future.
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- Top point to make: Between the January 6 insurrection and the starkly negative, even apocalyptic, messaging of former President Trump and other MAGA standard bearers, the MAGA movement is having trouble growing its support, while MAGA loyalists are losing confidence in the United States and in its democracy.
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- If you read one thing: Washington Post, 3/14/23: Why ‘MAGA’ is so appealing to older Republicans. In the 2020 election, older Americans were more likely to support Donald Trump than Joe Biden — but not by as wide a margin as you might think. Pew Research Center’s validated assessment of turnout in that election indicates that Trump won people ages 65 and older by about four points. That’s a slight advantage, at best. One reason we associate Republican politics with older Americans is simply that younger Americans are so much more Democratic. In 2020, voters under the age of 30 preferred Biden by 24 points. Between the parties themselves, there’s a difference: A higher density of the GOP is older than is the case with Democrats. About a third of the Republican Party is 65 or older. Why this divide by age? In part because of demographics.
3. Former Vice President Pence publicly rebuked former President Trump for his role in the January 6 insurrection, and Trump retaliated by blaming Pence for the violence.
Former President Trump and Vice President Pence have publicly broken over the January 6 insurrection. Pence delivered his strongest public rebuke yet to Trump by stating that “history will hold Donald Trump accountable” for the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol and that Trump’s reckless words endangered his family and everyone at the Capitol that day. Trump, meanwhile, claimed that Mike Pence should shoulder the blame for the violent riot on January 6 by Trump’s supporters, stating that if he had sent the votes back to the legislatures, there wouldn’t have been a problem on Jan. 6.
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- Top point to make: Pence’s words about January 6, and his break with Trump, are noteworthy, but ultimately insufficient. While he publicly admits that Trump was wrong and his lies were reckless, he still refuses to answer questions from federal prosecutors and puts blame on Trump’s lawyers instead of Trump himself. While Pence holds Trump responsible for endangering his family, he is not advocating for any punishment beyond what history may eventually decide.
- If you read one thing: Politico, 3/16/23: Inside Pence world’s decision to go hard at Trump at the Gridiron. In remarks that turned from comedic to biting, Trump’s ever-loyal No. 2 broke from his former boss more sharply than any candidate in the GOP field so far. “History will hold Donald Trump accountable for Jan. 6,” Pence told hundreds of journalists at what is typically a jocular white-tie affair. “Make no mistake about it: What happened that day was a disgrace, and it mocks decency to portray it in any other way. President Trump was wrong. His reckless words endangered my family and everyone at the Capitol that day.” Pence had used similar words to talk about Trump in his book — writing that his former boss’ “reckless words had endangered my family and all those serving at the Capitol.” But his advisers saw the Gridiron dinner as an opportunity not just to echo those sentiments but to amplify them. They also believed it would help Pence win over his most skeptical audience these days: “This was a different audience for him,” said Marc Short, Pence’s former vice presidential chief of staff and his senior adviser.
Expert Voices
Joyce Vance, former US attorney: “US presidents have no official responsibility for overseeing elections. They’re conducted by state officials. That means Trump doesn’t get any sort of federalized immunity for pressuring Georgia’s GOP speaker of the house to call a special session to throw the election to him.” Tweet
Ruth Ben-Ghiat, historian at New York University: “When the full history of the 2020-2021 coup attempt against American democracy is written, Fox will be a main protagonist. The Dominion Voting Systems lawsuit documents have put a spotlight on the network’s role at that time and the ongoing threat it poses to democracy. As a far-right radicalization machine and the de facto propaganda arm of the GOP, Fox is best understood through an authoritarian lens. Fox and the GOP are now closer than ever as they manage a massive coverup operation of their roles in trying to overturn the 2020 election and facilitating the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol.” Lucid
Jared Holt, a senior researcher at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue and an expert on domestic extremism: “noted a significant uptick in violent and hateful rhetoric online after the [Fox News Tucker] Carlson piece [on January 6] aired. Holt said a quick analysis showed Carlson’s name, and referenced to the Jan. 6 riot increased 15-fold in the days after the segment. He said the coverage is a deliberate attempt to distort the truth and convince Fox News watchers the insurrection was not as serious as it was. ‘Disagreements are at the heart of politics,’ Holt said. ‘The political process is about resolving those disagreements. But if one party of that conversation is attempting to erase what, objectively, was an attack on the democratic process itself – it’s just appalling.’” USA Today
Lilliana Mason, SNF Agora Institute Associate Professor of Political Science: “People listen to leaders. We have run some experiments where we have had people read messages from Joe Biden and Donald Trump, for example, a message that tells them, violence is never OK, we should never engage in violence. When people read that message, they become less approving of violence. Our leaders are able to guide their followers toward violence or away from violence. Whether or not they encourage their supporters to engage in violence is actually up to them. And our future is going to depend on that outcome.” PBS NewsHour
