This week, with just a few days left until election day, Donald Trump and Trump-loving Republicans across the country are practicing their plays from Trump’s election-denier playbook. They are discrediting the election, methods of voting, promoting conspiracy theories, and inciting political violence. Now, with election day nearly here and people already voting around their country, they are already using their playbook to overthrow the 2022 election.
Here’s what you need to know for the weekend:
Main Points for the Weekend:
1. Following Trump’s election-denier playbook, MAGA Republicans will not commit to accepting the 2022 midterm election results. Trump-loving Republicans will go to any length to spread conspiracy theories and baseless claims of fraud to overturn elections.
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- Top point to make: MAGA Republicans will stop at nothing to overturn elections that don’t go their way, including illegal and unconstitutional routes – setting up their playbook for 2022, 2024, and beyond.
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- If you read one thing: The Guardian, 11/2/22: ‘The Trump playbook’: Republicans hint they will deny election results. “Almost two years after Trump launched his unprecedented election subversion push, culminating in the January 6 insurrection at the US Capitol, the doubts he sowed around election integrity are now blossoming. A new poll from NBC News found that 65% of Republican voters still view Biden’s presidency as illegitimate. ‘The cancer that former president Trump injected into our electoral system has spread in 2022 to any number of candidates for important positions. They’re following the Trump playbook,’ Wertheimer said. Arizona is the ground zero of the 2022 threat of election subversion. All four of its Republican candidates in statewide races – Lake, together with the nominees for US Senate, attorney general, and secretary of state – are out-and-out election deniers… Some 124 candidates in the November elections have so far pledged to adopt the principles. They include Brian Kemp, the Republican governor of Georgia, and his Democratic opponent Stacey Abrams; and Georgia’s current secretary of state Brad Raffensperger who helped rebuff Trump’s efforts to overturn the state’s presidential outcome in 2020, and his Democratic challenger Bee Nguyen. Key election deniers, however, have yet to come on board.”
2. After the violent attack of Paul Pelosi, MAGA Republicans are following Trump’s lead, mocking the attack and spreading conspiracy theories. Other members of Congress are also on high alert for more targeted violence.
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- Top point to make: Anyone who refuses to condemn violence against political opponents is just as complicit as the person committing the violence themselves.
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- If you read one thing: New York Times, 11/1/22: With Falsehoods and Ridicule About Pelosi Attack, Republicans Mimic Trump. “The reaction to the assault on Mr. Pelosi among Republicans — who have circulated conspiracy theories about it, dismissed it as an act of random violence, and made the Pelosis the punchline of a dark joke — underscores how thoroughly the G.O.P. has internalized his example. It suggested that Republicans have come to conclude that, like Mr. Trump, they will pay no political price for attacks on their opponents, however meanspirited, inflammatory, or false… It is a page out of Mr. Trump’s playbook. For years, he elevated online rumors by speculating about them, bursting onto the national political scene in 2011 with the unfounded ‘birther’ theory about Mr. Obama. When Mr. Trump insulted Senator John McCain of Arizona for being taken captive in Vietnam, his popularity among Republicans suffered no discernible hit. The current crop of candidates and lawmakers who have grown in power through their allegiance to Mr. Trump have replicated his methods.”
3. Knowing their claims of election fraud were false, Donald Trump and his allies were relying on Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas to overturn the results of the 2020 election. Newly-exposed emails from Trump’s lawyers revealed they were relying on Justice Thomas to delay the count and certification of votes. Justice Thomas’ wife, Ginni Thomas, was also involved in the conspiracy to overturn the election.
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- Top point to make: Knowing his claims of election fraud were completely baseless, Donald Trump continued to push false statements and spew conspiracy theories to try and overturn the results of the election.
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- If you read one thing: Politico, 11/2/22: Trump lawyers saw Justice Thomas as ‘only chance’ to stop 2020 election certification. “‘We want to frame things so that Thomas could be the one to issue some sort of stay or other circuit justice opinion saying Georgia is in legitimate doubt,’ Trump attorney Kenneth Chesebro wrote in a Dec. 31, 2020, email to Trump’s legal team. Chesebro contended that Thomas would be ‘our only chance to get a favorable judicial opinion by Jan. 6, which might hold up the Georgia count in Congress.’ ‘I think I agree with this,’ attorney John Eastman replied later that morning, suggesting that a favorable move by Thomas or other justices would ‘kick the Georgia legislature into gear’ to help overturn the election results… Thomas is the justice assigned to handle emergency matters arising out of Georgia and would have been the one to receive any urgent appeal of Trump’s lawsuit to the Supreme Court — a fact that seemed to be part of the Trump legal team’s calculus. In another Dec. 31 email, Chesebro explicitly laid out this strategy: ‘[I]f we can just get this case pending before the Supreme Court by Jan. 5, ideally with something positive written by a judge or justice, hopefully, Thomas, I think it’s our best shot at holding up the count of a state in Congress,’ Chesebro said.”
4. Senator Lindsey Graham must finally testify before the Fulton County, GA grand jury for his involvement in trying to “find” votes for Trump in 2020. The Supreme Court declined to block a subpoena for the Senator to testify. He will testify on November 17th.
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- Top point to make: No one is above the law, no matter if they are former Presidents, members of Congress, or other federal and state officials.
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- If you read one thing: CNN, 11/1/22: Supreme Court rejects Lindsey Graham’s request to block Georgia grand jury subpoena. “The South Carolina senator had filed an emergency request asking the justices to halt the testimony – currently scheduled for November 17 – while legal challenges play out. Graham will now have to appear for testimony, although he will have room to object to certain questions as they come up, meaning the scope of his testimony or responses could be limited. In the unsigned order, the justices agreed with the lower courts – noting that Graham could not be asked to talk specifically about issues related to his legislative role. The court also noted that should disputes arise about particular questions the Senator’s lawyers can still object to questions on a case-by-case basis. ‘Accordingly,’ the Supreme Court said, ‘a stay or injunction is not necessary to safeguard the Senator’s speech or debate clause immunity.’”
Expert voices
John M. Sides, professor and William R. Kenan, Jr. Chair in the department of political science at Vanderbilt University: “I think what is concerning to me is that if people who lose free and fair elections will not accept that outcome and will actively work to undermine it or subvert it. That, to me, is the biggest threat to democracy. And here, again, I think you made a reference a little while ago to how Trump had changed the way that Republican politicians think they need to act and talk. And I think this is one of the examples of that.” New York Times’ The Ezra Klein Show
Michael Berkman, political science professor and director of the McCourtney Institute for Democracy at Penn State University: “‘Coming down from elites – from the former president, from leaders within the Republican Party, from many candidates – is the perpetuation of this idea that something was stolen, that these elections are not legitimate,’ said Michael Berkman, a Penn State professor who directs the university’s McCourtney Institute for Democracy. They study what it takes to nurture democratic institutions, in the U.S. and abroad. [Robert] Costa asked, ‘In the United States people often say it can’t happen here, the rise of a hard-line, nationalistic, anti-democratic government. But could it?’ ‘Oh, absolutely,’ Berkman replied. ‘I mean, I think that the thing to remember about democratic erosion is that it’s most likely to happen from within. We’re all watching what’s happening in Ukraine and impressed and proud of the Ukrainians, how they’re standing up and fighting for their democracy. But democracy doesn’t usually die through coups or invasion. It usually dies from within. An authoritarian-oriented leader is elected, and then they start to change the rules. They start to change who the other people in office are, start to change the referees. And you start to eat away at norms, start to eat away at guardrails. You start to erode people’s acceptance and the legitimacy of institutions that are essential to democratic rule. ‘And you can end up in a very unfortunate place.’” CBS News
Michael Jensen, Senior Researcher at the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) at the University of Maryland: “Jensen, who is studying extremist violence, said he’s been updating data lately for the number of reported incidents and was startled to see ‘a tremendous increase’ in threats and intimidation against local politicians and judges. ‘There’s always been threats against the president. There’s always been threats against senators and governors, but now you’re getting local school board members,’ Jensen said. ‘They don’t have the security and the protection. A local school board member, a health board member, an election volunteer — they’re not walking around with bodyguards. They don’t have a Marshal Service protecting them.’ Jensen said Jan. 6 was a wake-up call, as well as a missed chance for an off-ramp to the political extremism that is steadily spilling into violence.‘There was an opportunity for the more moderate elements of the Republican Party to distance themselves from the more radical elements and marginalize them, and be the start of the end of this wave,’ Jensen said. ‘The exact opposite happened. What we saw instead was a doubling down on moving extremism into the mainstream.’” Washington Post
Noah Bookbinder, president of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW): “These attacks on our democracy are happening in plain sight. There are hundreds of candidates around the country running for Congress, for statewide offices and for offices that oversee elections who are maintaining the position that the 2020 election was stolen despite incontrovertible evidence that President Biden won. The claim that the last presidential election was invalid and that efforts need to be made to ‘secure’ future elections — which really means rigging the outcome so that Donald Trump or his allies always win — is being made out loud. If Trump and his allies don’t win, they simply want to be able to throw the results out. The evidence is voluminous that Donald Trump tried to overturn a presidential election to cancel out the results of millions and millions of votes. As part of that, Trump attempted to use the Department of Justice and the powers of the federal government to make that happen. Ultimately, when those efforts looked like they were not going to be successful, Trump incited a violent attack on the Capitol as part of his effort to stop the peaceful transfer of power. Trump continues to send public signals that he will do the same things again and commit obvious crimes against democracy.” Salon Interview: CREW’s Noah Bookbinder on the “very small step” from Trump’s corruption to authoritarian rule
Nathan P. Kalmoe, political scientist at Louisiana State University: “Demonization makes violence more likely. My book w/ @LilyMasonPhD analyzes extreme partisan vilification (i.e. mechanisms of moral disengagement: threat, evil, inhuman) & its strong link to violent party attitudes. My US Civil War book also shows the same…Interestingly, Lily & I find that, while both partisan moral disengagement & aggressive non-political personality traits strongly predict violent partisan views, it’s a combination of both traits that strongly drives each individual relationship…Our book also shows that leader rhetoric matters. In particular, exposure to a single anti-violence message from a top party leader can measurably reduce violent views in the public.” Twitter Thread
Lilliana Mason, political scientist at Johns Hopkins University:“‘Even with the Paul Pelosi situation,’ Mason told Vox, ‘they’re saying this is terrible, but no one is saying violence is never acceptable. The Republican leadership is not condemning violence as a tactic, they’re just saying, ‘Sorry Paul got hurt.’’…’We’ve kind of lost touch with what is legitimate’ in a democracy, Mason said. ‘The fact that we don’t have the same standards of democratic legitimacy across the two parties means that no rational conversations can occur when there are conflicts over the outcome.’” Vox
Erica Chenoweth, expert on political violence at Harvard Kennedy School: “‘What we are experiencing is a democracy problem,’ Chenoweth said. ‘The thing that could really help our democracy problem right now is for all our leaders, including our Republican leaders, to say over and over that this stuff has to stop.’” Los Angeles Times
Ruth Ben-Ghiat, an expert on authoritarianism at New York University: “‘Republicans and Fox News have long depicted Democrats as mortal enemies, and political violence happens in exactly these circumstances: when people feel that the political opposition poses an existential threat and must be eliminated through violence,’ Ben-Ghiat said. ‘Look for more such actions as the GOP continues to embrace violence and brings extremists from the Oath Keepers and the Proud Boys into the ranks of the party.’” Business Insider
Julian Zelizer, professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University: “[My Pillow founder and CEO Mike Lindell] Lindell is an important figure, especially as our core democratic institutions and norms have come under sustained attack, and his impact is a vital reminder that election denialism is not an idea that simply took off on its own. Lindell is part of a much bigger story – one that reveals how a complex web of donors, party leaders, conservative organizations and media outlets has been essential to reinforcing extremism and helping it spread from the fringes to the mainstream.” CNN Op-Ed: Why My Pillow Guy is a central figure in the rise of right-wing extremism
Nancy MacLean, historian at Duke University, and Frank Clemente, executive director of Americans for Tax Fairness: “Billionaires have increasingly mobilized to gain even more influence in U.S. elections over the past decade, with this year’s midterms seeing an acceleration of that troubling trend…Billionaires are used to being able to buy what they want, whatever the cost. It’s up to us to make sure our democracy is not for sale.” WRAL
Orion Danjuma, Counsel at Protect Democracy, re: federal court order to block unlawful voter intimidation at ballot drop boxes: ““The brave voters who came forward today offered powerful testimony about the harm that voter intimidation wreaks on our democracy,” said Orion Danjuma, Counsel at Protect Democracy. “The court’s order today recognizes the importance of the federal laws that ensure voters’ ability to participate in democracy without fear, and strikes an appropriate balance between protecting voters from intimidation and not infringing First Amendment rights.” Statement | OVERVIEW: League of Women Voters of Arizona vs. Lions of Liberty LLC, et al
Daniel Squadron, executive director of The States Project: “‘When election deniers are in control, they will do whatever they can to undermine free and fair elections,’ said Daniel Squadron, The States Project’s executive director. ‘We know that the rules for elections and determining the winners are set through the legislative process, so what these folks do would have enormous impact’ on ‘everything from who can register and who can vote to how the results are counted’, Squadron added.” NBC News
Rick Pildes, elections expert and professor at New York University Law School: “‘People who have such extreme views about the last election might push for changes to the voting process that would both make it harder to vote for eligible voters and make it much harder to administer elections,’ said elections expert Rick Pildes, a New York University School of Law professor. Pildes pointed to various proposals in states like Arizona and Nevada that would mandate counting ballots by hand and cut back on mail-in and absentee voting. Kari Lake, Arizona’s Republican nominee for governor, suggested last weekend that she would support efforts to curtail early voting if elected.” NBC News
Norm Eisen, Brookings Institute senior fellow (CNN Video): “The American people have a right to transparency when it comes to public figures as influential as Donald Trump[.] & we will likely get it when the Supreme Court denies his appeal[.] I joined @CNN @OutFrontCNN @KateBolduan to discuss” Tweet
Joseph Mernyk, Stanford University sociology PhD student, Sophia Pink, Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania PhD student, Robb Willer, professor of sociology, psychology, and organizational behavior at Stanford University: “[R]esearch suggests it’s worth trying two strategies. First, broadcast that members of both parties generally do not support violence. Second, encourage political leaders to denounce violence, and publicize statements by those who have denounced violence in the past. Neither will end the threat of violence. But they could help strengthen long-standing U.S. norms against it.” Washington Post (Monkey Cage): How can the U.S. help prevent more political violence?
Ruth Ben-Ghiat, NYU expert on authoritarians: “Ruth Ben-Ghiat, a New York University professor who studies authoritarian systems, sees [disinformation about Pelosi attack] as the latest example of ‘autocratic political culture’ taking over parts of the GOP and the right. ‘The ability to assert a false reality in the face of empirical evidence is itself an act of power,’ Ben-Ghiat tells me. Those on the right pushing this line, she says, are placing themselves ‘above the truth’ and ‘above democratic custom.’ At the core of this politics, says Ben-Ghiat, is the flaunting of the ability to ‘get away with it,’ whether the ‘it’ is serial lying, the abandonment of basic norms, or even deliberate cruelty to a longtime colleague and member of the political opposition.” Washington Post
Barbara McQuade, former US attorney, re: Kash Patel granted limited immunity for testimony in Mar-a-Lago case: “This is a big step for prosecutors. Granting a witness immunity is not done lightly, but sometimes you must sacrifice a small fish to land a big whale.” Tweet
Joyce Vance, former US attorney, re: recent AZ drop box legal cases:“1/ This was the second of two voter intimidation cases assigned to Judge Liburdi. In the first case, he ruled in favor of the sometimes-armed people trying to intimidate voters using drop boxes. Why did the 2nd case come out differently than the 1st? 2/ In the 2nd case, lawyers amassed evidence of actual intimidation. Voters were videoed, harassed & threatened with doxxing. The judge imposed stricter rules for armed people who can’t go within 250 feet of a drop box. Armed intimidation of voters feels like 1963 in Alabama.” Twitter Thread | Civil Discourse: A Tale of Two Arizona Voter Intimidation Cases
